September 2, 2008 | In Politics |
A quick review of Canadian punditry over the last few days (now confirmed by party leaders) suggests that a federal election is coming next month, despite the rather familiar standings of the major parties in recent polls.
Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party consistently polls between 33 and 38 percent, while Stephane Dion’s Liberals lag anywhere from one to eight points behind. The left-leaning NDP, meanwhile fluctuates in the mid teens (13 to 17 percent), the separatist Bloc Quebecuois continues to hold the most support in Quebec, and the environmentalist Green Party flirts with 10 percent, nationwide.
All of these figures with the exception of rising Green Party support (which may or may not convert into actual votes) look very similar to the election results in January 2006, when the Conservatives won a minority government with 36 percent, followed by the Liberals with 30. If one looks purely at the nationwide polls, it would be difficult to imagine a Parliament that looks much different from the one we have now.
But most of the underlying fundamentals, it would appear, point to gains for the Conservatives, which is probably why they’ve suddenly become so eager to force an election.
Stephen Harper isn’t overwhelmingly charismatic, but he seems much more sure of himself than Stepahne Dion (giving him an edge on the campaign trail), and has the advantage of nearly three years in office without any major scandals or disasters.
The Liberal argument that Harper has a “hidden agenda” and favours “Americanization” or “theocracy,” holds much less water now that Canadians are used to his relatively moderate style of governing. In a question on who (as Prime Minister) would do a better job of “standing up to the United States” (whatever that’s supposed to mean), Harper won the confidence of 42 percent of respondents, versus just 29 percent for Dion, in a recent poll by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
On dealing with tough economic times, which is apparently the top issue on voters minds, 45 percent of respondents selected Harper as the man for the job, versus a mere 21 percent for Dion.
Even in “making progress with climate change,” the only major issue where the Liberals score better, the Liberal’s Green Shift plan to tax carbon emissions is likely to backfire big time. In proposing such a tax, Dion has created a classic wedge issue, given that Conservative-leaning voters are relatively unified in opposing the plan, while a good percentage of Liberals have voiced strong doubts. Overall, only 44 percent of Canadians support the Green Shift, and we can be fairly sure that at least half of those are Bloc, NDP, and Green Party supporters.
The Green Shift isn’t just bad policy; it’s bad strategy, and virtually ensures that Dion will lose supporters to the Conservatives. Even if he backs down on the plan, he’ll appear alarmingly weak and unprincipled.
On the flip side, of course, the memory of the Liberal sponsorship scandal isn’t as fresh, and probably won’t figure as prominently into this campaign as it did in 2006. Additionally, Harper will look like a hypocrite if he calls an election early, violating a law that he himself made.
Nevertheless, the fundamentals do favour the Tories, making a Liberal victory unlikely and a Conservative majority a very distinct possibility.
After the election is called (which will supposedly happen before next Sunday), I’ll tackle some of the issues and principles that the major parties (especially the Conservatives) should be paying attention to in order to gain admiration rather than rather than simply being the lesser among evils in the eyes of their supporters.
